Yank model: Challenger to the Duckworth/Lewis model

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yashsr

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Hello everyone,

As many of you know already know, I and a friend of mine have developed a mathematical cricket model known as 'Yank Model' and have challenged the Duckworth/Lewis method. We've now released our Advanced Model and can say that this is our finished product. Hence, to avoid confusions, I've created a new thread. You can check our website at:
http://www.yankmodel.com/

We've covered plenty of examples in T20 and ODIs in our Comparative Analysis. We've also showed why our model is superior to the D/L and the VJD method and have also pointed the apparent flaws and inconsistencies of the 2 models. We also have done a real match simulation on the Champions League 2010 matches. But we still haven't put up the details on the computation part as we've not completed the process of patenting.

I'd like the cricket fans from BigCricket Website to have a look at our model and give us a feedback. I'd urge the readers to just see the situation and guess your own reasonable target before checking the targets of the 3 models - Yank, D/L and VJD, and then judge which is better. I'd urge readers to think in a cricketing manner and not just mathematically. As always, constructive criticisms and comments are welcome! Although we've put up our own comments regarding almost every example, you can always have a different opinion which we'd love to know. One thing I'd like to tell everyone is that I personally believe that our model has no or very little flaws because we've worked for about 4 months and identified flaws in the D/L and the VJD model and created a model accordingly based on real match data. But you're more than welcome to challenge this claim!

Thanks,
Yash
 
Hey guys, we'd definately love to have your feedback and can confirm that this is our finished product(no more versions in the near future will be released). So please let us know what you think of the Yank Model...Seems everybody is busy watching India vs Australia :)
 
Yank model targets for T20 cricket seem pretty high, for ODI cricket they seem more reasonable and quite close to most of the Duckworth/Lewis targets. I've had a quick look at the overall product, the T20 section still needs some work in my opinion, the targets on some instances seem pretty high or unachievable.

Your method is better than the Jayadevan one though which looks pretty rubbish to me.
 
Ljp86 said:
Yank model targets for T20 cricket seem pretty high, for ODI cricket they seem more reasonable and quite close to most of the Duckworth/Lewis targets. I've had a quick look at the overall product, the T20 section still needs some work in my opinion, the targets on some instances seem pretty high or unachievable.

Your method is better than the Jayadevan one though which looks pretty rubbish to me.
Click to expand...

Thanks for you reply.....Although I have no problems with you liking D/L over Yank and VJD models, it seems you that you have a pre-conception that D/L is the best and then you're judging other methods by their closeness to the D/L model....I maybe wrong though.....I'd just recommend you to have a look at the scenario and judge your own target and then compare the targets of the 3 models. D/L gives very bad targets in a few cases like:

Example 22:- In an ODI on 5/10/10 Bangladesh scored 228 against New Zealand. NZ were 85/4 in 15 overs and rain interrupts play and match reduced to 37 overs. Calculate Target.



Target
Yank Method 201
D/L Method 210*
VJD Method 199

*Even though NZ had lost 4 wickets, D/L reduction of 18 runs is too less, considering the fact that 13 overs were deducted. D/L target seems as bizarre as the Targets obtained by the Most Productive Over Concept used earlier in 1990’s (most famously in the 1992 World Cup).
Suppose NZ were 85/0 instead of 85/4 in 15 overs
D/L Target 182
Yank Target 186
In this case it seems D/L is over responsive to wickets.
Just for the record, New Zealand went to make 200 and went to lose the match by 9 runs (As per D/L) in their allotted 37 overs which means that the result would have been decided according to the method used.

Also see:

Example 1: Interruption between Team1 and Team2′s innings occurs and leaves only 10 overs for Team1. Find Targets.



Team1 Score Yank Method D/L Method VJD Method
250 143 131 132
225 130 120 119
200 118 109 107
175 105 98 95
150 93 88 82
125 80 74 69
100 68 59 56
75 55 45 43
50 43 30 29
25 26* 16 15

Now see the targets when Team 1 scores 50. When you reduce team2's innings to 10 overs, the target should not change significantly as this game is definately more about wickets than overs. Team 1 is obviously going to try to dismiss Team 2 because if it goes the entire distance of 20 overs, it is virtually obvious Team 2 will win. Hence Yank target of 43 is very reasonable than compared to D/L's 30. A target of 30 just robs Team 1 of any chances of getting Team 2 all out.

You may also see the comments on the website under this example... Since the game is now of only 10 overs, Team1 can allow only 2 overs for each bowler now instead of 4 overs. So had the match not been interrupted, Team1 could have used its best 2-3 bowlers to finish off the match without using its 4th and 5th bowlers whereas now it may have to use all its bowlers. This is a major disadvantage in such a low-scoring game.

What do you think?
 
Ljp86 said:
Yank model targets for T20 cricket seem pretty high, the T20 section still needs some work in my opinion, the targets on some instances seem pretty high or unachievable.
Click to expand...

Well, or model is based on real match data and we conclude that D/L's acceleration level in T20 is very very low as compared to what happens in real matches. We've also done a real match simulation on the recently concluded Champions League T20 2010 which can be found at:
http://yankmodel.com/clt20-simulation/

Obviously this is just an example and we can apply real match simulation in any of the T20 Tournaments and you'll find always that D/L's acceleration level is very low.
 
yashr, what sort of result would your system have given for tonight's match between Sri Lanka and Australia?
 
Caesar said:
yashr, what sort of result would your system have given for tonight's match between Sri Lanka and Australia?
Click to expand...

SL 161/2 in 34 overs.
Match reduced to 45 overs.
SL 213/3 in 41.1 overs.
Innings ends and Aus get only 39 overs to bat.

39 over Target




Target

Yank Method
240​

D/L Method
244​

VJD Method
231

Aus 139/5 in 27.4 overs
Match reduced to 38 overs.
Find target for Australia in 38 overs.

38 over Target




Target

Yank Method
236​

D/L Method
240​

VJD Method
227
 
Duckworth[less], Yanky doodle model; they're all crap. If both teams don't
get to bat the same number of overs delay the match until they do or replay it.
 
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