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As much as I wish they’d succeed, I feel it is a completely insane attempt since it seems badly prepared and based on a blatant miscalculation of the balance of power. They will be defeated and Putin and his clique will be stronger than ever which will discourage all those with similar plans. Reminds me strongly of the events in 1934, 1944, and the failed move against Erdoğan.
 
Kram81 said:
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Good decision considering that OceanGate CEO Stockton Rush, whose Titan submersible took tourists down to see the seafloor wreck of the RMS Titanic, once told a reporter that "at some point, safety is just pure waste." And also sneering at the US submarine industry for being "obscenely safe, because they have all these regulations".
 
looker-on said:
As much as I wish they’d succeed, I feel it is a completely insane attempt since it seems badly prepared and based on a blatant miscalculation of the balance of power. They will be defeated and Putin and his clique will be stronger than ever which will discourage all those with similar plans. Reminds me strongly of the events in 1934, 1944, and the failed move against Erdoğan.
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Excellent points Thomas and in hindsight I agree except for one point, namely Putin's sway over Russia given the ABC article:

Listening to an ABC discussion someone said Putin's position of power comes mostly from three factors:
First he keeps the Elites divided.
Second he had a blunt instrument outside the law called Wagner.
Thirdly is Putin's Fear factor. 'Fear' to keep quiet all voices of dissent with implicit retaliation.

Well total control of Wagner's 25,000 hardened professional army is up in the air now.

Next is that the fear factor has decreased now that Yevgeny Prigozhin has stood up to Putin. (I'm paraphrasing here).

Lastly, seeing a weakened Putin the Elites may act in some manner?

Wagner Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was banished to Belarus as an exile but he may well regret that. Putin's Henchman Alexander Lukashenko, Grand brutal Dictator of Belarus neighbouring both Russia to its east and Ukraine to its south.
He allowed the huge Russian military convoy passage through to the border with Ukraine just south of them.
What damn strategic exercises, lies, lies, lies ... !?

I doubt Putin will allow ex Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin to live much longer than a year unless Putin is got rid of first?
What happens then?

Lukashenko of Belarus may well serve up Putin's old cook Yevgeny a nice Arsenic salad. Russian diplomacy.
 
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Grier said:
Yevgeny Prigozhin, says his men had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go "all the way" against the Russian military.
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Our hope of the downfall of the current Russia and Putin was short lived as the brutal mercenary turned chicken within view of Moscow after a deal by another of the region's brutal dictators Lukachenko apparently offered him sanctuary in Belarus rather than face mutiny charges if he was captured in Russia.
There was a chance that had the Wagner and the Free Russia military group made up of dissident soldiers, joined forces, that the Kremlin may have fallen. No doubt this is a huge setback for mad Vlad, but I wonder if had Prigozhin triumphed whether he'd have been any better than Putin. The Kremlin needs a moderate leader to restore Russia to good times.
 
Ritchie said:
No doubt this is a huge setback for mad Vlad, but I wonder if had Prigozhin triumphed whether he'd have been any better than Putin.
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At the moment it looks like anybody is better than Putin except Kadyrow, of course. Prigozhin spoke out on why the war was started, and more importantly, his present ideas seem to reflect different war aims, which are less extreme than Putin's. He stated that until Feb. 24, 2022 there was no “insane aggression” on Ukraine's part, and Ukraine had no intention of jointly attacking Russia with NATO.
He denied that cities in the Donbas had been attacked by Ukraine over the first eight years of the war, and added that the Ukrainian army had only exchanged fire with Russian proxy forces. He also said the Donbas had been “plundered” by people from the Russian presidential administration, Russia’s FSB security service, and Russian oligarchs.
These are quite realistic insights and are diametrically opposed to Putin's official narrative. The question now is how that would have translated into practical policies, had he come to power?
 
Grier said:
Excellent points Thomas and in hindsight I agree except for one point, namely Putin's sway over Russia given the ABC article:

Listening to an ABC discussion someone said Putin's position of power comes mostly from three factors:
First he keeps the Elites divided.
Second he had a blunt instrument outside the law called Wagner.
Thirdly is Putin's Fear factor. 'Fear' to keep quiet all voices of dissent with implicit retaliation.

Well total control of Wagner's 25,000 hardened professional army is up in the air now.

Next is that the fear factor has decreased now that Yevgeny Prigozhin has stood up to Putin. (I'm paraphrasing here).

Lastly, seeing a weakened Putin the Elites may act in some manner?

Wagner Boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was banished to Belarus as an exile but he may well regret that. Putin's Henchman Alexander Lukashenko, Grand brutal Dictator of Belarus neighbouring both Russia to its east and Ukraine to its south.
He allowed the huge Russian military convoy passage through to the border with Ukraine just south of them.
What damn strategic exercises, lies, lies, lies ... !?

I doubt Putin will allow ex Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin to live much longer than a year unless Putin is got rid of first?
What happens then?

Lukashenko of Belarus may well serve up Putin's old cook Yevgeny a nice Arsenic salad. Russian diplomacy.
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As you say, Prigozhin's half-hearted coup d'etat will make him a dead man walking before he shares Litvinenko's fate. His days are numbered. However, Europe can't be interested in a tottering Russian state heading towards complete chaos. A regime change is badly wanted but it must be a smooth one.
I'd like to add to the three pillars of Putin's power his neo-imperial ambitions which strike a cord with many people. They enable him to divert attention from domestic issues to foreign affairs which helps to establish some common ground among people and to unite them on that basis. Putin comes across bruised and battered. We'll see how his followers evaluate his undoubtedly weakened position. Let's also hope that Putin won't be going berserk.
 
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Kram81 said:
This is the coldest winter I can remember in years.
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Sydney has been copping what I termed the Beast from the South, a bitterly icy polar air stream that thankfully has moved north overnite. So this morning we are back to a mild sunny winter day. I can remove the beanie, gloves and other thermal attire during the day now.
 
looker-on said:
As you say, Prigozhin's half-heated coup d'etat will make him a dead man walking before he shares Litvinenko's fate. His days are numbered. However, Europe can't be interested in a tottering Russian state heading towards complete chaos. A regime change is badly wanted but it must be a smooth one.
I'd like to add to the three pillars of Putin's power his neo-imperial ambitions which strike a cord with many people. They enable him to divert attention from domestic issues to foreign affairs which helps to establish some common ground among people and to unite them on that basis. Putin comes across bruised and battered. We'll see how his followers evaluate his undoubtedly weakened position. Let's also hope that Putin won't be going berserk.
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www.abc.net.au

Putin may have dealt with the Wagner threat, but another group of militants are threatening to bring him down

Wagner's mutiny may be over, but from secret locations inside Russia and Ukraine, guerilla groups are dodging Moscow's crackdown on dissidents to sabotage Putin's plans and help Ukraine win the war.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

This is the Russian private army trying to bring down the Kremlin that I alluded to earlier.
 
It's been very cold about Perth with a few places hitting zero C and a few in the minuses.
I actually pulled out my long johns to keep warm at night. My dog is wearing his thickest coat and I put his little blanket over him when he settles down at night in his bedding.

I thought Prigozhin would be mad to go to Belarus where he'd be knocked off but it seems he has gone there after all.
President Lukashenko of Belarus seems to want him and his Wagner army to strengthen his own army.
There seems to be more twists and turns in this story than a cut snake.

I also heard Ukraine's offensive is slowing down having little air cover from Russian jets. That's why Zelenskyy wants those F16 jets it said.

Seems the word is Putin's position has been greatly weakened by the recent almost revolt of Prigozhin.
I had a chuckle when I heard Putin was having hissy fits and tantrums. Hopefully it'll end up on U tube! 😄

God forbid Putin might resort to nukes but I heard one analyst say that was highly unlikely. It's still possible though.
 
Jessica said:
I've been in minus temps and been snowed in, I loved it
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You are a strange human being Jessica ;)
Grier said:
I also heard Ukraine's offensive is slowing down having little air cover from Russian jets. That's why Zelenskyy wants those F16 jets it said.
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Puzzles me then why Zalensky did not hold back his much mooted offensive until the F-16s arrived and his pilots were fully trained. That Wagner neo-nazi leader is now saying that he never intended attacking Moscow. Not what he said after the Ruskies hit Wagner positions with missiles over criticsm of Putin and the Kremlin.
 
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Grier said:
I actually pulled out my long johns to keep warm at night. My dog is wearing his thickest coat and I put his little blanket over him when he settles down at night in his bedding.
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Is there no heating at all, or the heating lowered too far at night?
 
Ritchie said:
You are a strange human being Jessica ;)

Puzzles me then why Zalensky did not hold back his much mooted offensive until the F-16s arrived and his pilots were fully trained. That Wagner neo-nazi leader is now saying that he never intended attacking Moscow. Not what he said after the Ruskies hit Wagner positions with missiles over criticsm of Putin and the Kremlin.
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It would've taken many months if not years before pilots are suffciently trained and enough jets delivered. As this war is gonna last a couple of years, he'll get his jets for the next offensive.
Why was the offensive mooted?
 
Grier said:
I thought Prigozhin would be mad to go to Belarus where he'd be knocked off but it seems he has gone there after all.
President Lukashenko of Belarus seems to want him and his Wagner army to strengthen his own army.
There seems to be more twists and turns in this story than a cut snake.
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Yes, there's quite a lot of speculation. One source stated that Prigozhin's family would've been in danger if he hadn't backed off.
 
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