The Serious Discussion Thread.

[Richie]

I heard about that Thomas and other freezes of Russian monies held abroad, and using that money to aid Ukraine I think? Something like that.

Yes Terry the West froze all Russian monetary assets in western banks when it invaded Ukraine. In the interum the value of the funds have grown with added interest, some Euro35b of which is to be handed to Ukraine or has already been. Not sure if it is a gift or a loan. This will ensure Ukraine can continue its war with Russia. Also there has been some 'Trump proofing' behind the scenes by the EU in the eventuality Trump won and cut Ukraine funding, which appears inevitable.

 

[Richie]

The prospect of Trump unchecked is not merely an offense to abstract notions of democracy. It poses multiple dangers, all of them clear and present. To take just one, there is nothing to stop the old-new president making good on his promise (has now done) to put the anti-vax fanatic and conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr in charge of public health. . If that happens, there are already warnings that polio or measles could return to afflict America’s children.

Or consider the climate. In Salem, Virginia, last weekend, I heard Trump hail the glories of “liquid gold”, meaning oil, leading the crowd in a chant of “Drill, baby, drill”. He promised to extract oil from the last pristine wilderness in North America, Alaska’s Arctic national wildlife refuge. Joe Biden had moved to preserve it; Trump will send in the rigs. That will accelerate yet further the climate breakdown, a crisis that was unmistakable that day in Salem, where the temperature reached a weird 26C in November.

Trump is now free to abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s wolves, free to make Nato a dead letter – which it will be the day Trump is sworn in on 20 January. We know that Trump has contempt for Nato’s core principle of mutual defence. Without that, the alliance falls apart. Yet there is no one to stop him.

We know how Trump wants to rule because he has said so, telling a Fox News interviewer he would be a dictator “on day one”. We know which leaders he admires because of the way he gushes over Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un. The assumption had always been that these fantasies of his would remain just that, because of the institutional checks and balances that fetter an American president. But when Trump renews his oath on 20 January, those restraints will look either badly frayed or entirely absent. He will be Trump unbound, free to do his worst. (The Guardian)

 

[looker-on]

Trump is now free to abandon Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s wolves, free to make Nato a dead letter – which it will be the day Trump is sworn in on 20 January. We know that Trump has contempt for Nato’s core principle of mutual defence. Without that, the alliance falls apart. Yet there is no one to stop him.

That's part of the grim-looking reality despite the big manoeuvre you mentioned.

 

[Richie]

Bit of an eye opener.

 

[Grier]

Bit of an eye opener.

That's a great clip Craig, except the brief sales pitch at the end on cyber security. Very informative nevertheless and confirmed many of my own perceptions on global affairs.
What might Trump do?
No one knows including Trump!
Looney tunes trumpets any which way... 🎙

I think Trump actually does worry China and Russia a bit.
Notice how XI XI has been saying nice things about our PM Elbow Easy lately.

I reckon as a last fling Biden has sanctioned those long range precise missiles to be sent to Ukraine as a to Putin using the excuse it was in retaliation to the 15,000 North Koreans entering the fray. Fair enough but it is escalatory. Go slow Joe, Go!
Trump will have to somehow smooth that over with his manfriend Vlad Puthebootin.

 

[Richie]

PM Elbow Easy

Now that is a worry. One Chinese communist praising an Australian socialist. Hearing it is because of Albo having a bit each way with both the US and China. rather than taking side for the West like most other world leaders. Albo is just a chicken to do otherwise.

Nutty Little Rocket Man has threatened to send 100,000 of his troops now. Next will be South Korea following sending same for Ukraine. And the two Koreas will be having a proxy war with each other. What a crazy place the world has become.

 

[Grier]

I am still amazed at some of Trump's Cabinet picks.
Meta AI churned this out for me:

Donald Trump's latest cabinet picks include:

- *Secretary of State*: Marco Rubio, who will become the first Latino to serve in this position. Rubio is known for his hawkish views on foreign policy, particularly regarding China, Iran, and Cuba, although he has softened some of his stances to align with Trump's less interventionist approach ¹.

- *Attorney General*: Matt Gaetz, who will work closely with Trump on initiatives such as mass deportations and pardoning January 6 rioters ¹.

- *Director of National Intelligence*: Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic representative who left the party in 2022 to become an independent. Despite having little direct experience with intelligence work, Gabbard will become the top official in the U.S. intelligence community ¹.

- *Health and Human Services Secretary*: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an environmental activist who has spread misinformation about vaccine dangers. Kennedy plans to overhaul the Food and Drug Administration and replace hundreds of employees at the National Institutes of Health ¹.

- *Defense Secretary*: Pete Hegseth, a Fox News commentator and veteran who opposes the "woke" policies of Pentagon leaders ¹.

- *EPA Administrator*: Lee Zeldin, a former congressman from New York who lost the governor's race to Kathy Hochul in 2022. Zeldin will help Trump maximize U.S. oil and gas production by rolling back regulations ¹.

- *National Security Adviser*: Mike Waltz, a Republican representative and retired Army Green Beret who has criticized Chinese activity in the Asia-Pacific region ¹.

- *Chief of Staff*: Susie Wiles, one of Trump's campaign managers, who will bring order and discipline to the White House ¹.
- *Border Czar*: Tom Homan, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump's first administration, who will prioritize deporting immigrants who pose safety and security threats ¹.

- *UN Ambassador*: Elise Stefanik, a Republican congresswoman who replaced Liz Cheney as House Republican conference chair in 2021 ¹.

- *Department of Government Efficiency*: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead this newly created department, aiming to reduce bureaucracy and slash regulations ¹.

- *Homeland Security Secretary*: Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, who refused to impose a statewide mask mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic ¹.

- *Interior Secretary and Energy Czar*: Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, who will manage public lands and minerals, national parks, and wildlife refuges ¹.

- *CIA Director*: John Ratcliffe, the former director of national intelligence, who is seen as a hardcore Trump loyalist ¹.

- *Department of Education*: Linda McMahon, WWE co-founder and former CEO, who has been a strong supporter of Trump since his 2016 campaign ².

 

[looker-on]

I am still amazed at some of Trump's Cabinet picks.
Meta AI churned this out for me:

Donald Trump's latest cabinet picks include:

- *Secretary of State*: Marco Rubio, who will become the first Latino to serve in this position. Rubio is known for his hawkish views on foreign policy, particularly regarding China, Iran, and Cuba, although he has softened some of his stances to align with Trump's less interventionist approach ¹.

- *Attorney General*: Matt Gaetz, who will work closely with Trump on initiatives such as mass deportations and pardoning January 6 rioters ¹.

- *Director of National Intelligence*: Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic representative who left the party in 2022 to become an independent. Despite having little direct experience with intelligence work, Gabbard will become the top official in the U.S. intelligence community ¹.

- *Health and Human Services Secretary*: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an environmental activist who has spread misinformation about vaccine dangers. Kennedy plans to overhaul the Food and Drug Administration and replace hundreds of employees at the National Institutes of Health ¹.

- *Defense Secretary*: Pete Hegseth, a Fox News commentator and veteran who opposes the "woke" policies of Pentagon leaders ¹.

- *EPA Administrator*: Lee Zeldin, a former congressman from New York who lost the governor's race to Kathy Hochul in 2022. Zeldin will help Trump maximize U.S. oil and gas production by rolling back regulations ¹.

- *National Security Adviser*: Mike Waltz, a Republican representative and retired Army Green Beret who has criticized Chinese activity in the Asia-Pacific region ¹.

- *Chief of Staff*: Susie Wiles, one of Trump's campaign managers, who will bring order and discipline to the White House ¹.
- *Border Czar*: Tom Homan, the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump's first administration, who will prioritize deporting immigrants who pose safety and security threats ¹.

- *UN Ambassador*: Elise Stefanik, a Republican congresswoman who replaced Liz Cheney as House Republican conference chair in 2021 ¹.

- *Department of Government Efficiency*: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead this newly created department, aiming to reduce bureaucracy and slash regulations ¹.

- *Homeland Security Secretary*: Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, who refused to impose a statewide mask mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic ¹.

- *Interior Secretary and Energy Czar*: Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, who will manage public lands and minerals, national parks, and wildlife refuges ¹.

- *CIA Director*: John Ratcliffe, the former director of national intelligence, who is seen as a hardcore Trump loyalist ¹.

- *Department of Education*: Linda McMahon, WWE co-founder and former CEO, who has been a strong supporter of Trump since his 2016 campaign ².

View attachment 3084

View attachment 3085

Thanks Terry, all in a nutshell.
- *Homeland Security Secretary*: Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, who refused to impose a statewide mask mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic ¹.
Just adding that she's the one who shot her 1-year old dog since it wouldn't want to be trained as a hunter dog.

 

[Richie]

Entire Regiment of 1,000 Soldiers Desert Russian Army.​

It lists 1,010 soldiers—equivalent to an entire regiment. The group includes 858 contract soldiers, 150 mobilized troops, two conscripts, 26 junior officers, a major, and two lieutenant colonels. North Koreans are also deserting.

 

[Richie]

Memoirs of the German Iron Lady.

Loading…

www.reuters.com

Fascinating. Like to read more.

 

[Richie]

CHILDHOOD AND LIFE IN COMMUNIST EAST GERMANY:
"Life in the GDR was a constant life on the edge. Even if a day began in a carefree manner, everything could change in a matter of seconds if political boundaries were transgressed... the state knew no mercy. Finding out exactly where these boundaries lay was the real art of living. My somewhat conciliatory character and my pragmatic approach helped me."
She described a sense of superiority "because, despite everything, this state did not manage to deprive me of something that made me live, feel and sense: a certain degree of carefreeness."

Is this how you saw things too Thomas?

 

[looker-on]

CHILDHOOD AND LIFE IN COMMUNIST EAST GERMANY:
"Life in the GDR was a constant life on the edge. Even if a day began in a carefree manner, everything could change in a matter of seconds if political boundaries were transgressed... the state knew no mercy. Finding out exactly where these boundaries lay was the real art of living. My somewhat conciliatory character and my pragmatic approach helped me."
She described a sense of superiority "because, despite everything, this state did not manage to deprive me of something that made me live, feel and sense: a certain degree of carefreeness."

Is this how you saw things too Thomas?

Partly. I was going to comment on the quotes in the link anyway. Will do that shortly.

 

[looker-on]

CHILDHOOD AND LIFE IN COMMUNIST EAST GERMANY:
"Life in the GDR was a constant life on the edge. Even if a day began in a carefree manner, everything could change in a matter of seconds if political boundaries were transgressed... the state knew no mercy. Finding out exactly where these boundaries lay was the real art of living. My somewhat conciliatory character and my pragmatic approach helped me."

Let me begin with this statement which is basically correct but should be modified on two accounts in order not to be misleading.
a) It does not apply to all people, as she implies by not qualifying it, but only to those who were career-driven. The vast majority, didn't have such aspirations since they didn't want to get involved with the system politically, something that would've been inevitable if you wanted to acquire certain positions. Earlier on, I expressed that by referring to a niche society.
b) I do wonder what example she would use to clarify what could happen "within seconds"? The phrase "In a matter of seconds" adds unnecessary drama to what was really the case and presumably is a nod to the readership suggested by her editorial office or ghostwriter. If she had written "quite fast", it would've been OK, although lacking drama and style, I admit. Yet this is not about style but about what comes through to the readers. It insinuates that the regime was so arbitrary that for the most trivial reason, e.g. by saying just one critical sentence, you'd be dead which is not true. Reality was not that simple. What happened "within seconds" always had a history and that seemingly singular event was actually the last straw that broke the camel's back. Merkel is often described as a person paying attention to facts (see her opinion about Trump you also quoted) and being interested in telling the truth. She should've been (made) aware that her statement paints a somewhat distorted picture. Clearly, that's not her intention.

 

[Richie]

Let me begin with this statement which is basically correct but should be modified on two accounts in order not to be misleading.

Not answered my question. Is this parallel to your childhood upbringing.

 

[looker-on]

Not answered my question. Is this parallel to your childhood upbringing.

I thought I did. She and I have a lot in common but there are also differences both as children and later as young adults.
Mind you, her statement does not refer to her childhood upbringing but very clearly to her work as an early-career scientist at the Academy of Sciences which was the most prestigious position you could get at her age, in her twenties. This is parallel to my situation. I, and all people in a similar situation, know what she is talking about. You may remember that I met her when we were in Leipzig and talked to her at a party before she went to Berlin. I had just come from Berlin.

 

[Grier]

I chatted with my Sydney sider 81yo eldest brother today who feels the US is headed towards a decline in many perspectives.
A failed state even leaning towards a civil war. Trump and his looney and suspect cabinet are like a dark circus and ill equipped to govern without chaos. An avowed anti vaxxer in charge of health! The first AG once accused of child sex trafficing, a wrestling promoter in charge of education, climate change deniers, drill baby drill .... even his ex henchmen on charges too.
Frenetic bands of loud talking lawyers scuttling charges against Trump himself. Gawd. It's a joke which the whole world is watching.
Their nobility and global leadership is now a joke.
Pulling out of the Paris climate accord other nations take their lead from the idiots in the Divided Looney States of America.
At a time when the world is on a tipping point re global warming these morons in America are oblivious to the consequences of their gross stupidity. Damn them for their greed and hubris..

Earlier this morning an old Maths mate phoned me for our 80min chat. He went onto a PHd in Physics examing hyperspectral data pertaining to Climate change .... Anyway, his reaction to the Trumping GOP was to say we're stuffed with the way the world is now. Wars, Pandemics but mostly the increasing affects of Global Warming.
Weather extremes become more extreme, just like the increasing severity of those hurricanes and tornadoes in the US's southern states. Also, as Global warming ramps up other previously unknown factors come into play futher compounding and increasing the affects of Global Warming. I bet Trump doesn't have a clue about such things nor the innate morality and intelligence to help the planet survive the looming tragedies.
I'm amazed self declared genius Trump can't join those dots. To me he's a stupid, stupid boastful self serving pigorant.

My heart goes out to the Philippines who've had 6 major storms just in one month. Of course that's not seen by the inward looking idiots about to take charge of the US stats.

Jessica, apart from mad Vlad's nukes, I reckon NATO, even without the Trumpian's help, are more than a match for Russia. Stuff the US with their corruptions, self servings and ignorances.

US, you're cancelled ! Begger off !

 

[Richie]

Thomas hearing Germany is planning hosting up to 800,000 allied troops plus a massive arsenal should Putin stupidly start a European war. Is this foolish given your nation will then be a prime target for Mad Vlad and his missiles. Be better to spread the troops across all other strong nations such as France, Poland, Italy and Germany. Yes, no?

 

[Grier]

Thomas, there is much chatter now on our Aussie air waves about the legacy of your Angela Merkel.

From afar I always thought her as intelligent, moral, strong politically savvy and fair. I think her early dealings with Putin were considered and appropriate at the time.

How do you see her from a more personal and closer perspective Thomas? Hindsight is appropriate.

 

[Grier]

Thomas hearing Germany is planning hosting up to 800,000 allied troops plus a massive arsenal should Putin stupidly start a European war. Is this foolish given your nation will then be a prime target for Mad Vlad and his missiles. Be better to spread the troops across all other strong nations such as France, Poland, Italy and Germany. Yes, no?

God help all if a war starts up between Europe's NATO forces and Russia. Don't count on the Trumpsters, I think?
No one knows what Trump will do, including himself, the idiot looney court Jester turned king.

Mad Vlad is like the boy who cried wolf. His constant threats are words blowing in the wind, with lots of hot air...🌬🌬🌬🌬
I confess his latest unveiling of his supersonic multiheaded long range missile is not to be taken lightly.
They can carry (tactical?) nukes too. 🛰⏱☄

The combined populations of France, Germany and the UK combined roughly equal the oppressed population numbers in Russia. Also friendly Western partners like my Australia would help, as would the UN with dentures (not quite toothless). Apart from an ageing arsenal of nukes, I still doubt Russia could win a war with Europe's combined NATO forces, friendly nations and the UN .
Even without the Yankee twerps about to being guilty of moral cowardice. Some yardsticks are more important than some grubby "Art of the Deal". Greed personified!

Let Trump go warring with Chi-nah if he wishes, Big bromances loom. It'd keep him distracted.

 

[looker-on]

Thomas, there is much chatter now on our Aussie air waves about the legacy of your Angela Merkel.

From afar I always thought her as intelligent, moral, strong politically savvy and fair. I think her early dealings with Putin were considered and appropriate at the time.

How do you see her from a more personal and closer perspective Thomas? Hindsight is appropriate.

Interesting that Merkel is stirring so much interest in AUS. Why is that?

I'd really like to talk to her today. I found myself defending her and explaining her moves to lots of people from the West both orally and in writing.

Merkel is a complex personality who, as long as she was in office had cut ties to her old companions, which I'd probably have done, too. Her classmates complained about her not attending class reunions. But what did they expect? Merkel knew that she was criticised by a lot of East-Germans for not vigorously defending the case of East Germany in a reunified country. Women wanted her to beat the big drum for women's rights. Many of them blamed her for pursuing a policy that allegedly had led to mass unemployment in the East making their lives miserable. It simply was beyond their grasp that Merkel was not a chancellor of East Germany but of both parts of the country. If you'd known that your presence at such a gathering would ruffle a few feathers, would you have been keen on attending just to meet their expectations and contribute to them having an enjoyable and pleasant evening? That was the situation in East Germany.

It was even more complicated in the Western part where she was stigmatised for not being catholic, for being a woman, and for being socialised in East Germany. She didn't let it show but she smarted under it which was exemplified by the fact that she started commenting on it only as it was clear that she would leave office soon. Up until then she hadn't wanted to be perceived as an East German. Her critics have published numerous biographies. Remarkably, they were all written by West Germans who obviously didn't understand life in a dictatorship and failed to do justice to her. There were embarrassing misjudgements as well as ill-intentioned attributions.

Now they seem to expect her to call her political decisions into doubt without saying which of the former chancellors had done the same. I agreed with most of her political decisions, notably with her stance on how the Ukraine conflict could be settled as I didn't see any feasible alternative to the Minsk agreement . You were saying, with hindsight. Exactly. In 2014, no one in the West wanted to support Ukraine militarily in the way it is being done now. There were the vested interests of German companies both consuming oil and gas, and importing it. There were the German consumers of cheap energy generated from Russian oil and gas, which they didn't want to do without. Consequently, she wanted to maintain the status quo for them, you might say.

As for immigration, her decision to let those immigrants from Hungary in without consulting with the EU member states is objectionable. I also thought that she'd done a bad job as minister of the environment before she became chancellor. I'd have expected a firmer stance from a natural scientist. That said, it must have been extremely hard to call for environmental protection 25 years ago given the fact that such a policy is not even wanted today, when the signs on the wall are much clearer. When it comes to economic policy I sometimes wonder what someone, who is not a natural scientist would have done. Her decision to break even whatever it takes is questionable. Her economic advisors should have explained the alternative and the consequences to her. Now we have a rotten infrastructure with bridges collapsing, an alarming lack of daycare units and run-down schools and universities. Our armed forces are also in a sorry state. Craig, this runs counter to making Germany a strategic logistic hub in a war against Russia. I'll enlarge on that shortly. And only now she says that the "national debt brake" should be revised, i.e., the debt limit lifted. Why not while she was in office?

On the positive side, she did an excellent job in managing the Corona crisis and her performance in saving the Euro and forming an alliance against Trump was also good.

I'd also be interested to know how she'd assess her early decision to go for Russian as a foreign language. Due to that she'd been struggling with English throughout her political life. It is no coincidence that she was never shown on TV even reading a text in English let alone speaking without notes. There must have been a tacit agreement with the media not to show her in such a situation.

It was often mentioned that she would tackle problems from the perspective of a natural scientist. Fair enough, considering that we've had enough lawyers in parliament and in top positions. I wonder, though, if an economist would have done the same standing in her shoes.

What becomes clear is that she's way more ambitious than me and she is power-hungry which surprised me since it's not a characteristic researchers commonly have. She kept being industrious throughout her life and took efforts to keep up in a field where she had had no background knowledge. That's her.